A hydrological-modeling study of the impact of land use/land cover and climate change on runoff in a watershed in the western Brazilian Amazonia | Um estudo de modelagem hidrológica do impacto do uso da terra / cobertura da terra e mudanças climáticas ..

Ranyere Silva Nóbrega

Resumo


In this work we investigate the effect of land use and land cover in the Jamari sub river basin, located in the Brazilian Amazonian. The objective is twofold: 1) to study the impact of deforestation and climate change on the basin's runoff, and 2) to test the feasibility of using a semi-distributed hydrological model  for studying runoff of a low-slope river basin such as Jamari. We use a wide variety of data such as Landsat imagery, digital elevation data as well as conventional precipitation and near-surface data. We defined scenarios ranging from a completely forested basin to a completely man-modified one. In addition, we tested realistic scenarios for the ongoing deforestation process with 20% and 30% deforestation and tested scenarios hypothetic for climate change.  Our scenarios suggest that for extreme and realistic scenarios there is an increase of runoff when deforestation occurs, since less water is intercepted in canopy, evapotranspiration and groundwater tends to decrease with deforestation. In climate change scenarios, increase temperature and precipitation tends to increase evapotranspiration and runoff and, increase temperature and decrease precipitation tend to increase evapotranspiration and decrease runoff and groundwater. The results suggest that Semi-distributed Land Use-based Runoff Processes (SLURP) is suitable for use in the Jamari sub river basin with the advantage of being a light model, in terms of internal parameters. The proposed methodology is suitable for use in other basins of the region.

Palavras-chave


deforestation, climate change, Amazonia; runoff, water resources

Texto completo:

PDF

Referências


BECKER, B.K., 1991. Amazônia. 2ª edition. Ática Press, São Paulo, Brazil, 112 pp.

BRUBAKER, L.K., ENTEKHABI, D., EAGLESON, P.S., 1993. Estimation of continental precipitation recycling. J. Climate, 6, 1077-1089.

CALDER, I.R., HALL, R., BASTABLE, H.G., GUSTON, H.M. SHALA, O., CHIRWA, A., KATUNDU, R., 1995. The impact of land use change on water resources in sub-Saharan Africa: a modeling study of Lake Malawi. J. Hydrology, 60, 329-255.

CHARNEY, J., STONE, P.H., QUIRK, W.J., 1975. Drought in the Sahara: a biophysical feedback mechanism. Sicence, 187, 434-434.

CHERKAUER, K.A., LETTENMAIER, D.P., OLSEN, JR. 2000. A century of change the hydrologic impacts of vegetation change on the upper Mississipi river. In: Poster Presented at UW-UBC Conference. Seatle.

COSTA, M.H., FOLEY, J.A., 1997. Water balance of the Amazon Basin: dependence on vegetation cover and canopy conductance. J. Geophys. Res., 102, D20, 23.973-23.989.

D’ALMEIDA, C., 2007. The effects of deforestation on the hydrological cycle in Amazônia: a review on scale and resolution. Int. J. Climatology. 27, 633-647.

DE VOOGT, K., KITE, G.W., DROOGERS, P., MURRAY-RUST, H. 1999. Modelling water allocation between a wetland and irrigated agriculture in the Gediz Basin, Turkey. Research Report, International Water Management Institute, Colombo, Sri Lanka.

DUAN, Q., SOROOSHIAN, S., GUPTA, V.K., 1994. Optimal use of the SCE-UA global optimization method for calibrating watershed models. J. Hydrology, 158, 265-284.

EAGLESON, P., 1982. Land Surface Processes in Atmospheric General Circulation Models. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 578 pp.

ECUYER, R., 2003. Application de Topmodel à différents bassins versants. Rapport de stage ENSEEIHT, INPT, Toulouse, FR, 30 pp.

ELTAHIR, E.A.B, BRAS, R.L., 1994. Precipitation recycling in the Amazon basin. Quart. J. R. Met. Soc., 120, 861-880.

FEARNSIDE, P.M., 2005. Deforestation in Brazilian Amazonia: history, rates and consequences. C. Biology, 19, 680-688.

FOLEY, I.A., BOTTA, A., COE, M.T., COSTA, M.H., 2002. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the climate ecosystem and river of Amazonia. G. Biogeochemical Cycles, 16, 1132.

GARBREHT, J., MARTZ, L.W., 1999. An automated digital landscape analysis tool for topographic evaluation, drainage identification, watershed segmentation, and subcatchment parameterization: TOPAZ Overview. 170 pp.

GOTETI, G., LETTERNMAIER, D.P., 2001. Effects of streamflow regulation and land cover change on the hydrology on the Mekong river basin, M.Sc Thesis. University of Washington, Seatle. Washington. 152 pp.

HETZEL, F., GEROLD, G., 1998. The water cycle of a moist deciduous rainforest and a cocoa plantation in Cote d’Ivoire. In: Water Resources variability in Africa during the XX Century. IAHS Publ. 216, IAHS Press: Wallingford; 411-418.

HONZÁK, M., LUCAS, R.M., AMARAL, I., CURRAN, P.J., Foody, G.M., Amaral, S. 1996. Estimation of the leaf area index and total biomass of tropical regenerating forests: comparison of methodologies. In: Gash, J. H. C.; Nobre, C. A.; Roberts, J. M.; Victoria, R. L. (editors) Amazonian deforestation and climate. Wiley.

HUNDECHA, Y., BÁRDOSSY, A., 2004. Modeling of the effect of land use changes on the runoff generation of a river basin through parameter regionalization of a watershed model. J. Hydrology, 292, 281-295.

KITE, G.W., 2005. Manual for the SLURP hydrological model. 236 pp.

KITE, G.W., 2002. Modelling the Olifants basin with SLURP. IWMI Report.

KITE, G.W., 2000. Hydrologic Modeling of the Mekong river basin. International Water Management Institute, PO Box 2075, Colombo, Sri Lanka. 149 pp.

KITE, G.W., 1993. Application of a land class hydrological model to climatic change. Water Resources Research, 29 (7), 2377 2384

KITE, G.W, DALTON, A., DION, K., 1994. Simulation of streamflow in macro-scale watersheds using GCM data. Water Resources Research, 30(5), 1547-1559.

KITE, G.W., DANARD, M., LI, B., 1998. Simulating long series of streamflow using data from an atmospheric model. Hydrological Sciences, 43(3).

KITE, G.W., DROOGERS, P., 1999. Irrigation modeling in the context of basin water resources. J. Water Resources Development, 15, 43-54.

KRUSCHE, A.V., BALLESTER, M.V.R., VICTORIA, R.L., 2005. Effects of land use changes in the biogeochemistry of fluvial systems of the Ji-Paraná river basin, Rondônia. Acta Amazônica, 35, 2, 192-205.

LAURENCE, W.F, COCHRANE, M.A., BERGSEN, S., FEARNSIDE, P.M., DELAMÔNICA, P., BARBET, C., D’ANGELO, S., FERNANDES, T., 2001. The future of Brazilian Amazon. Science. 291, 438-439.

LAURENT, M.E.St., VALEO, C., 2003. Modelling runoff in the northern boreal forest using SLURP with snow ripening and frozen ground. Geophysical Research Abstracts, 5, 06-30.

LI, K.Y., COE, M.T., RAMANKUTTY, N., JONG, R., 2007. Modeling the hydrological impact of land-use change in West Africa. J. Hydrology, 337, 258-268.

MARENGO, J.A., 2006. On the hydrological cycle of the Amazon basin: a historical review and current state-of-the-art. Rev. Brasil. Meteorologia, 21, 3, 1-19.

MARTZ, W., GARBRECHT, J., 1999. An outlet breaching algorithm for the treatment of closed depressions in a raster DEM. Computers & Geosciences, 25, 835-844 pp.

MIRANDA, A.C., MIRANDA, H.S., LLOYD, J., GRACE, J., MCYNTIRE, J.A., MEIR, P., 1996. Carbon dioxide fluxes over a cerrado sensu stricto in central Brazil. In: Gash, J.H. C.; Nobre, C.A.; Roberts, J.M.; Victoria, R.L. Amazonian deforestation and climate. Wiley. Chichester. 611p.

NIJSSEN, B, O’DONNELL, G.M., HAMLET, A.F., LETTENMAIER, D.P., 2001. Hydrologic sensitivity of global rivers to climate change. Climatic Change, 50, 143-175.

NÓBREGA, R.S., 2008. Modeling impacts of deforestation in water resources of river basin Jamari (RO) using data surface and TRMM. D.Sc. Thesis. Federal University of Campina Grande, Paraíba, Brasil. 2008. 212p.

NÓBREGA, R.S., CAVALCANTI, E.P., SOUZA, E.P., 2005. Recycling water vapour on South America using reanalysis of NCEP NCAR. Rev. Brasil. Meteorologia, 20 (2), 253-262.

ROBERTS, J. M., CABRAL, O.M.R., COSTA, J.P., MCWILLIAM, A.L.C., Sá, T.D.A., 1996. An overview of the leaf area index and physiological measurements during ABRACOS. In: Gash, J.H.C., Nobre, C.A.; Roberts, J.M., Victoria, R.L. Amazonian deforestation and climate. Wiley. Chichester. 611p.

ROCHA, E.J.P., 2004. Terms humidity and influence balancing of contour superficial on rainfall Amazonian. São José dos Campos: INPE, 2001. P.210 - (INPE-10243-TDI/904).

SHI, P., YUAN, Y., ZHENG, J., WANG, H., GE, Y., QIU, G., 2007. The effect of land use/cover change on surface runoff in Shenzhen region, China. Catena. 69, 31-35.

SU, M., STOLTE, W.J., VAN DER Kamp, G., 2000. Modelling Canadian prairie wetland hydrology using a semi-distributed streamflow model. Hydrological Processes. 14 (14), 2405-2422.

THORNE, R., WOO, M., 2006. Efficacy of a hydrologic model in simulating discharge from a large mountainous catchment. Journal of Hydrology. 30, (1-2), 301-312.

Trenberth, K.E., 1999. Atmospheric Moisture Recycling: Role of Advection and Local Evaporation. J. Climate, 12, 1368-1381.

VAN LANGENHOVE, G., AMAKATI, M., De, BRUINE, B., 1998. Variability of flow regimes in Namibian Rivers: natural and human induced causes. In: Water Resources Variability in Africa Durint the XX Century. IAHS Plub. 16. IAHS Press, Wallingorf, 455-460.

WILLIAMS, M.A.J., BALLING, R.C., 1996. Interactions of desertification and climate. For WMO/UNEP. Arnold Press, London, UK, 270 pp.

YANG, S.L., ZHAO, Q.Y., BELKIN, I.M., 2002. Temporal variation in the sediment load of the Yangtze River and the influence of human activities. J. Hydrology, 263, 56-71.

YIN, H.F., LI, C., 2001. Human impact on flood and flood disasters on Yangtze River. Geomorphology, 41, 105-109.


Apontamentos